FavouriteOdds Arbitrage
Table rule: every table is sortable. Select any column header to sort; select it again to reverse the order.
| Event / kickoff | Market & pick | Bookmaker odds | Fair odds | EV | Book/market record | Source | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Current promoted bets
Loading the positive-EV bets available to customers now…
Promoted bet settlements
Loading every bet previously shown to customers…
Latest settled and open bets
Open bets remain here after they leave the live catalogue and update when settlement is verified.
| Event | Pick | Bookmaker | Source | Status | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Current opportunities
Loading the latest scan…
| Status | Kickoff | Sport / league | Match / market | Leg 1 | Leg 2 | ROI | Profit | Window duration |
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Paper-placed history
Loading recent paper placements…
| Paper placement | Last seen | Kickoff | Sport / league | Match / market | Leg 1 | Leg 2 | ROI | Odds / window | Window duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Polymarket ↔ bookmaker
Currently verified live paper comparisons only.
| Status | Kickoff | Sport / league | Match / market | Polymarket ask | Bookmaker leg | ROI | Profit | Window duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tennis bookmaker candidates remain settlement-blocked until retirement and disqualification rules are verified for each pair. Polymarket tennis rows are experiments, not arbitrage. No bets are placed automatically.
Bookmaker/Pinnacle cycle inspector
Loading live windowsPinnacle exact-market drops wake the bookmaker scanners. A paper bet is scored only when the same market, period, line and selection still offers positive EV; bookmaker response time is tracked separately.
Live comparison coverage
- Matched Pinnacle events
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- Exact event↔book pairs
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- Exact selection comparisons
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Market coverage is loading…
Loading bookmaker and sport mix…
Loading rolling paper bets…
| Event / detected | Market / selection | Pinnacle move / quality | Bookmaker movement | EV / validation | Observed odds drift | Result / profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Qualified view: one row per immutable paper signal window · Raw view: active scanner latches before bookmaker matching and EV validation · promotion remains fail-closed · no real-money orders
Pinnacle EV Bets
Guest API waitingEvery shown selection passed synchronized entry-odds validation; older pre-validation records remain in the audit archive outside public counts and performance. Performance uses one flat unit per valid unique selection. Settled wins and losses update unit returns; open bets remain pending. Long-shot and reference-quality safeguards still apply.
Scanner status
Latest completed pull from each bookmaker plus the reference and prediction-market feeds used by this workspace.
Pinnacle tennis by bookmaker
Discovery, current pricing, and research paper returns for Efbet, Winbet, Inbet, and PalmsBet. ROI uses settled tennis entries only.
Bet tracking
Unique paper-ledger selections by bookmaker, Polymarket, and reference feed. Repeated scans and duplicate routes count once.
A tracked bet is one unique selection per direction and bet venue. Source cards show participation in that selection; they do not imply a real-money order was submitted.
Performance snapshot
Gate-qualified settled bets and publisher-precomputed flat-unit returns across all consolidated paper entries. Market selections update this entire performance view from precomputed slices; Sport further scopes shared markets, while the remaining controls filter only the ledger table.
Cumulative all-history 1-unit return
Settled paper entries from the selected market slice, or all recorded history when no market is selected.
No settled 1-unit bets match every active filter.
| Event / kickoff | Market & pick | Bookmaker odds | Pinnacle / fair odds | Odds drift | Window | Priority / EV | Placed at | Paper placements | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Returns by market
Loading the complete filtered ledger…
1-unit and €1,000 Kelly replay by market
Every market row independently starts at €1,000 and compounds only settled wins and losses; pending stakes reserve nothing. Totals and spreads are split by outcome and exact line. Profitable promoted filters also appear here as rows marked Filtered; FT 1X2 means full-time three-way match result and ML means full-match moneyline. Quality uses each selection's independent 1-unit ROI after 30 settled bets: Good ≥ +3%, Neutral between −3% and +3%, Bad ≤ −3%.
| Sport | Market | Bets settled / open | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked (€) | Kelly P&L (€) | Expected (€) | Luck (€) | Kelly ROI | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Automatic promotion: soccer and tennis filters
Efbet soccer full-time 1X2 and tennis full-match winner evaluate odds 1.01–2.99 and margin ≤4.0% independently. Tennis ML also evaluates the research-selected margin ≤4.5% with reference max-risk limit ≥750 cohort. A filter promotes automatically into published performance after at least 50 settled bets and flat one-unit ROI above +10%; qualifying bets are combined without duplication. Promotion does not enable bet execution.
| Promotion filter | Bets settled / open | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked (€) | Kelly P&L (€) | Expected (€) | Luck (€) | Kelly ROI | Quality |
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1-unit and €1,000 Kelly replay by EV band
Each EV band independently starts at €1,000. Entry EV is frozen when recorded; quality uses independent 1-unit ROI after 30 settled bets.
| EV band | Bets settled / open | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked (€) | Kelly P&L (€) | Expected (€) | Luck (€) | Kelly ROI | Quality |
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1-unit and €1,000 Kelly replay by maximum entry margin
Every 0.5-point ceiling independently starts at €1,000; the selected risk floor and all other filters remain applied. Missing entry margins are excluded. Quality uses each ceiling's independent 1-unit ROI after 30 settled bets.
| Margin ceiling | Bets settled / open | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked (€) | Kelly P&L (€) | Expected (€) | Luck (€) | Kelly ROI | Quality |
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1-unit and €1,000 Kelly replay by entry max-risk floor
Each limit floor independently starts at €1,000; the selected margin ceiling and all other filters remain applied. Missing entry limits are excluded. Quality uses each floor's independent 1-unit ROI after 30 settled bets.
| Risk floor | Bets settled / open | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked (€) | Kelly P&L (€) | Expected (€) | Luck (€) | Kelly ROI | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Promotion Autopilot
Automatically evaluates exact Grid rules, promotes confirmed paper selections, and pauses deteriorating rules. It never enables bet execution or notifications.
| Rule | Sample | Full 1u result | Newest test | OOS | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Does the model improve promoted bets?
Compares the existing promoted cohort with the bets retained by the promoted-only LightGBM filter. Results are fixed at 1u; the customer feed keeps only passing promotions, without enabling execution or notifications.
1,000-client simulation comparison
Each client draws 50, 100, or 200 different settled bets from the newest out-of-sample period.
| Bets / client | Existing promoted | ML-filtered | Average units | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Promoted bets right now
Passing bets remain visible to customers; filtered-out bets remain here for audit.
| Bet | Market | Book / odds | EV | ML score | Shadow decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Market families with profitable model-gated slices
These results include only bets retained by the model inside each market, side and line. They do not recommend promoting the broad market. Each slice must be profitable with at least eight bets in both validation and untouched test periods.
| Model-gated market | Validation | Untouched test | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
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Exact live bets recommended for promotion
Every current candidate is scored by the model trained on all settled bets. Margin and sharp-market limit are included as pre-bet quality features.
| Bet | Market | Book / odds | EV | Margin / limit | All-market score | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Bookmaker → Polymarket
● Checking… Pre-match onlyNew WebSocket paper bets placed on Polymarket across supported soccer, tennis, and esports contracts.
Return by bookmaker
Price-source attribution for unique paper bets. Multi-source bets can appear under more than one bookmaker, so these cards are not additive.
Performance snapshot
Settled bets and recorded 50% Kelly economics. Every filter updates these results and the chart below.
Where would 1,000 bettors finish?
Each bettor randomly samples settled 1-unit bets from the current filter slice, without replacement.
Cumulative 50% Kelly result
Settled 50% Kelly bets from the current filter slice.
No settled 1-unit bets match every active filter.
Buy the full best-ask level · $1,000 max
Keeps the quoted Polymarket price unchanged.
No settled bets have captured best-ask depth.
Buy until blended edge reaches 0% · $1,000 max
Walks higher asks and stops at break-even edge.
No settled bets have an exact captured ladder for the 0%-edge strategy yet.
| Event / score | Market & pick | Polymarket buy | Book consensus | EV | Price window | Placed at | Paper placement | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Returns by market
Loading the complete filtered ledger…
1-unit and 50% Kelly returns by market
One row per paper bet with its chronological Kelly replay. Totals and spreads are split by exact line. Quality uses each line's independent 1-unit ROI after 30 settled bets: Good ≥ +3%, Neutral between −3% and +3%, Bad ≤ −3%.
| Sport | Market | Bets settled | W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | Unique ROI | Kelly staked | Kelly P&L | Expected | Luck | Kelly ROI | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Grid Promotions
Bookmaker → Polymarket v2 research rules. Candidates are frozen from historical train, validation and newest-test evidence; Promoted additionally requires clean forward observations seen only after that candidate was registered. This is research-only and never enables real-money execution.
| Rule | Sample | Full 1u result | Newest test | OOS | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Game Lines mapping audit waiting…
Polymarket → Bookmaker
● Checking pricing worker… Pre-match onlyScanner status loading…
Return by bookmaker
Direct betting-venue return for unique all-tracked paper bets. These bookmaker cards are additive.
Current latched events
Waiting for the first fresh discovery cycle…
| Event | Market & selection | Polymarket reference | Bookmaker price | EV range | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Performance snapshot
All unique tracked bets use flat 1u and dynamic 50% Kelly shadow replays, including no-fills, zero-stake observations, and >4.00 result-only bets. Executed paper and recorded Kelly performance remain separate for audit. Every filter updates these results and the chart below.
Where would 1,000 bettors finish?
Each bettor randomly samples settled 1-unit bets from the current filter slice, without replacement.
Cumulative 50% Kelly result
Settled 50% Kelly bets from the current filter slice.
No settled tracked bets match every active filter.
| Kickoff | Event | Placed at | Market & pick | Polymarket fair | Bookmaker quote | EV | Signal window | Paper placement | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading ledger… | |||||||||
All-tracked 1u and executed Kelly returns by market
All-tracked comes first and includes every unique Polymarket → Bookmakers bet. Executed paper/Kelly stays separate underneath.
Every unique tracked bet by market
Loading all tracked markets…
Broad families combine bookmakers, selections, and lines. Use the exact table below to audit a specific bookmaker and pick.
| Sport | Market | All tracked bets | All tracked settled | Open | W–L | Avg odds | 1u result | ROI | Kelly staked | Kelly P&L | Kelly ROI | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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All tracked bookmaker routes by exact market and selection
Loading exact bookmaker and selection cohorts…
Promotion is fail-closed: an exact selection needs 51 settled bets and positive 1u profit, or its approved bookmaker-market family needs 20 settled bets and at least 10% ROI.
| Sport | Bookmaker | Market | Selection / line | Tracked | Settled | Open | W–L | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u result | ROI | Quality | Promotion |
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Executed 1-unit and 50% Kelly returns by market
Loading executed market returns…
| Sport | Market | Executed settled | Routes settled | Open routes | Unique W–L | Win rate | Avg odds | Avg EV | 1u unique | Unique ROI | 1u routes | Kelly staked | Kelly P&L | Expected | Luck | Kelly ROI | Quality |
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€1,000 shadow portfolio
1% per bet · 25% maximum open exposure · first qualifying edge per event · stake remains reserved until settlement.
Edge and market apply only to this replay. Current sport, bookmaker, status, result, and search filters remain in scope.
Loading the current filter’s capital-constrained replay…
Odds Explorer
Explore bookmaker prices against a consensus of sharp, liquid markets. Compare captured movement or value present at discovery with one shared set of filters and performance views.
Performance snapshot
All cards, the return curve, and the ledger use the same filters.
Cumulative 1-unit returns
No settled leads match every active filter.
No settled leads match every active filter.
Winning by market
Markets are sorted by 1-unit profit; every active filter and the analysis view remain in scope.
| Sport | Market & pick | Tracked | Settled | W–L–V | Win rate | Avg EV | 1u profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load market performance. | ||||||||
| Event / kickoff | Market & pick | Bookmaker odds | Reference / fair odds | Odds drift | Window | EV | Observed | Limit / margin | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load the report. | |||||||||
Collector timestamps show retained observations, not internal update times or proof of causation. Pre-match only. No alerts, account actions, or automated betting are enabled.
How paper tracking works
Live rows use synchronized millisecond quotes; closed price and game-state windows move to the logs. Book → Polymarket buys require at least two independent de-vigged book sources plus the full visible ask fill and fees. Cross-venue edges above 20% are rejected as likely game-state divergence. Odds above 4.00 are result-only. No order is submitted.
Live tennis, soccer and esports trading opportunities
Waiting for fresh, synchronized prices…
Book listings count the same match once per bookmaker; distinct matches deduplicate those listings.
Live arbitrage
Checking synchronized in-play moneylines…
| First detected | Last seen / price + point window | Match / score | Route | Paper fill | ROI | Projected profit | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Live +EV bets
Comparing bookmaker prices with Polymarket fair probability…
| First detected | Last seen / price + point window | Match / score | Selection | Paper entry | Polymarket live fair odds / depth | EV | Expected profit | Tracking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tracked +EV price tape
Retaining every qualifying price window and replaying one-entry timing rules after settlement…
| First detected | Last seen / price + point window | Match / score | Selection | Paper entry | Polymarket entry fair odds | EV | Actual / expected profit | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Discovery before pricing
Cross-book coverage
Soccer and tennis event and exact-market diagnostics
Cross-book coverage
Soccer and tennis event and exact-market diagnostics
Coverage loads when this panel is opened.
Coverage by bookmaker
| Pipeline | Bookmaker | Matched | Needs matching | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Names needing review
| Source event | Matched bookmaker names | Missing |
|---|---|---|
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Exact market gaps
| Bookmaker | Market | Period | Missing selections | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Event coverage measures unique fixture-name matching. Exact coverage requires the same normalized market, period, line and selection at two or more sources; single-source markets are reported separately.